Surprise? Elon Musk’s $8 Twitter Blue hasn’t made very much money so far.


Twitter has descended into absolute chaos in recent days as its new owner, Elon Musk, chases his new revenue stream: Twitter Blue, the platform’s refurbished paid user subscription.

When asked by a Twitter user to confirm how subscription numbers were going, Musk simply replied, “Needs some tweaks, but overall proceeding well.”

But that doesn’t seem to be the case.

New Twitter Blue subscriptions were put on pause on Friday, just after the updated program launched on Nov. 9. Fake accounts were impersonating brands and notable individuals, which certainly did not please the advertisers that remain on the platform.

The mobile analytics firm Sensor Tower provided Mashable with revenue stats for Nov. 9 and Nov. 10 when subscriptions were open for anyone with Apple iOS devices in the U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK.

Twitter Blue brought in $488,000 in those two days. Accounting for the $8 price tag, that’s 61,000 new subscribers at most.We previously reported that Twitter mistakenly launched Twitter Blue over the weekend, bringing in around 30,000 subscribers. Around 20,000 users also signed up on the Monday and Tuesday prior to Twitter Blue’s launch based on revenue data. And that doesn’t yet count the users that have upgraded from the $5 plan to the $8 plan after Wednesday’s launch.According to a report in the New York Times, internal Twitter logs show that 140,000 users have subscribed to the new Twitter Blue in total so far.

Looking at just brand new subscribers over the past two-days since the $8 Twitter Blue officially launched, that’s a conversion rate of just over 0.025 percent of Twitter’s 238 million daily active users. If you factor that only the 10 percent of Twitter users that the company considers to be “power users” would be interested in paying, the conversion rate is a bit better but not great at just over 0.25 percent. The average conversion rate in e-commerce is roughly between 2 and 3 percent.

However, there are a few things to note. Some of that two-day revenue includes renewal subscriptions from users who paid for the previous iterations of Twitter Blue, which cost $3 and $5, and did not upgrade. Also, consider that the much-requested edit button feature was added as a perk to the previous version of Twitter Blue on Oct. 6. Renewals for the users who subscribed to that plan in the first week would land within the timeframe of the $8 launch.

According to Sensor Tower, Twitter’s in-app revenue from the launch of the edit button until Oct. 10 was approximately $156,000, which amounts to an estimated 31,200 paying subscribers. Around half of those renewals likely fell on Nov. 9 or Nov. 10, not accounting for cancellations.

On top of that, it’s clear that a number of these $8 signups are from trolls impersonating brands and other users. As these accounts get banned, it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to renew their subscription the following month.

In a best-case scenario where Twitter continues to gain 30,500 subscribers every day with zero cancellations, Twitter is looking at generating $7.32 million per month, or just over $87.8 million per year. That’s not quite the half of $5 billion that Elon Musk seeks.In a piece published earlier this week, Mashable looked at just how many paying subscribers Twitter could reasonably expect using industry standard e-commerce conversion rates and landed on around 600,000. Using Sensor Tower’s data, Mashable also estimated that the previous version of the Twitter Blue plan only had 105,000 subscribers paying $5 a month. Casey Newton of The Platformer newsletter later corroborated this estimate, finding that Twitter Blue had “a little more than 100,000 active subscribers.”

MASHABLE